Stock Market Analysis August 9 2013

Morning Stock Market Thoughts For August 9, 2013

— Futures were bid up going into the open. And IWM has shown strength (though now it’s fading a bit). EEM is also leading the way higher.  I will be watching closely to see if these trends can continue and what breadth looks like.

— I’m keeping an eye on big cap stocks – IBM and CAT for example to see the action.

Trading Thoughts On Stocks I’m Watching Today:

— SNV: I expect Synovus to work off yesterday’s gains, but I don’t see it as overbought. Maybe it will even run into the close. Coming out of the gate though, the ask volume is high on this one. I would like to see that even out. Otherwise I’m a dip buyer at 3.25-3.30ish…

— FMD: I have a small position in this (having sold most of it on the spike up to 1.80ish… So I’m actually open to more of a pull back. I would love to buy it around 1.40. But I’m not convinced it will go back lower. Sit and watch

— TINY: This piece of garbage is languishing. I sold it on the June pump to 3.70 and have since averaged back in. I’m about even on the position + the prior cap gains…. But, I need to do more research into management. I get the impression others think they aren’t shareholder friendly, which is a concern. But I want to do look at the facts myself before jumping to any investment conclusions.

Other Thoughts and Good Articles I’ve Read Today:

— AEG: I liked their conference call yesterday. Management is disciplined and I think that’s refreshing from a financial institution. Here’s the transcript from the Q2 2013 AEG conference call.

Market Close Update:

It was a pretty tepid day for my portfolio, and the market at large. The DOW was down 3 digits for a good portion of the day, significantly lagging the Nasdaq.

SNV reacted worse than I expected – but the volume on this pullback was very low. My most recent leg-in to this stock was at $3.32 so I’d like to see it move down to $3.27 or so before adding more.

With TINY, I feel like the bull case is just about “not going down.”  Since the stock was taken out of the Russell 2000 it has felt heavy selling. They also released financial results today, that showed the net asset value per share improving to $4.24 (from $4.11). The increase is probably due to the sale of Xradia, where the company says it earned about $11M in profit.

The thing with TINY is though, that the investments are hard to value. So you ned to knock a couple percentage points off management’s estimate if you want to be honest with yourself. In this case I think that still presents a strong margin of safety for TINY. But it may take a while for the rest of the market to move it.

FMD was more or less a blah day. And I thought about adding to BRKS, but I’ll wait a little longer. I’m feeling edgy about the macroeconomics of everything, and price action has been shaky and selective – so I’m not rushing to throw around cash.

All in all, my portfolio fared well given the intraday action.

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