Monthly Archives: July 2013

Georgia Real Estate Market Assumptions Revisited

Georgia Real Estate AssumptionIn the fundamental analysis section of my last post, about Synovus Financial Corp (NYSE:SNV), I made an assumption about the Georgia Real Estate Market that I ended up feeling uneasy about. So let’s revisit that assumption:

“As long as the Georgia real estate market holds up, I think the fundamental case for SNV is quite strong. “

Synovus Financial Corp Analysis (NYSE:SNV)

In fact, before going to bed last night, I felt really compelled to look up some facts and publish them in the morning for all to see. And after digging through the numbers, I’m somewhat reassured.

If you’re also trying to ignore the noise of the Yahoo! Finance message boards… here are some of the resources I found, so you can look at the facts for yourself:

Georgia Real Estate Market Overview – Foreclosures down, home prices up. Georgia Market Summary – Good stats on the different metropolitan regions, as well as the prices of different types of home.

Forbes- Housing is Improving, but Lagging – Georgia isn’t explicitly mentioned in this article, but it’s good to get the national perspective when you’re looking at state or region specific facts.

Atlanta Daily News – Fifth Highest Foreclosure Rate – Things are looking up, but there is still improvement to be made.

FHFA Data showing improvements in GA Housing Data – This is the most reliable data I could find from the Federal Housing Finance Association. And it shows a strong position for Georgia, in terms of home prices.

If you want to get even dipper, take a look at this List of counties in GA, sortable by population  — then cross-reference it by searching the most populated areas on From this quick analysis it’s clear that in the last year (and the last 6 months especially) Georgia real estate prices have improved significantly.

RealtyTrac Foreclosure Stats – This heat-map shows the density of foreclosures in all the different areas of Georgia. This is kind of a cool visual tool, and you can easily then cross-reference it by population using the Wikipedia link above to see how “bad” the bad areas really are. Take a look for yourself.

Finally, to get a grip on the housing market, I didn’t just look at housing stats. Almost as importantly…

Georgia’s employment statistics also looks to be improving, with an 18% decrease in new EI claims over the last year.  And if you dig a little deeper you’ll see that while Georgia’s employment rate declined 7% from 2008 to 2010, it had also rebounded 3% by the end of 2012. There is still a ways to go and employment is still 200K less than in 2008, but as per the numbers, things look to be improving and shou

Synovus Financial Corp Stock Analysis (NYSE:SNV)

I thought you might enjoy a quick a look at one of the stock’s I’ve been buying. So here’s a brief Synovus Financial Corp (NYSE:SNV) Stock Analysis.

Synovus Financial Corp Fundamental Analysis: Growth Narrative

Synovus Financial seems to be at something of a turning point. They’ve reduced their operating and credit costs, improving profitability dramatically in the last year. Their non-performing loans are also decreasing sharply each quarter.

Synovus Financial Corp Fundamental Analysis: Mis-Priced Earnings

Plus, SNV just unveiled how they are repaying their TARP debt last week. And the market is eating up the secondary offering. Since the early earnings release that accompanied the SNV TARP news, the stock of Synovus Financial has risen almost 10%. SNV debt has also been upgraded by Fitch, with a positive outlook. Moody’s recently upgraded SNV, too.

Other than Goldman, analysts have been busy upgrading SNV and (raising the price target to boot).

Improving macro-outlook aside: From a valuation perspective, Synovus looks fairly priced.

SNV stock has just started to trade at a small premium to book value. Generally, I try not to buy anything above book value. But in this case I’m comfortable adding to my position because the price/book has only recently edged above 1. Additionally, SNV appears cheap relative to earnings – with a P/E of just under 4 and PEG ratio of 0.48 (see video above)


As long as the Georgia real estate market holds up, I think the fundamental case for SNV is quite strong. Some have their doubts about this assumption, but for now I’m bullish.

If you’re still not convinced, let’s look at the price action of Synovus Financial Corp…

Technical Analysis of Synovus Financial Corp:

SNV has been showing improved technicals as the year progresses. The stock is in a clear uptrend, and on a shorter term timeframe, has held the recent gap higher – which I highlighted on Twitter a few days ago…

SNV Technical Analysis 2013

SNV holding support after a recent breakout

Additionally, on the daily time frame, the longer term moving averages are all nicely lined up – further confirming the bullish trend. The large buy volume on the recent breakout is also encouraging.

Finally, it’s worth mentioning how the price action of SNV is acting constructively. Specifically, there seems to be firm support at 3.25. And though Synovus Financial is over-bought, judging by bollinger band analysis, the character of the price action is healthy. In particular…

Synovus Financial stock is grinding sideways and slightly higher (on very high volume) rather than being violently rejected from prior overhead supply. I think this is the most the bulls can hope for right now – but it can go on for awhile. I also would not be surprised by a bit of a pullback in the days to come, and will be a buyer on dips. Such is my analysis of Synovus Financial.

[update: as of close on July 24 SNV is at 3.35, closing slightly off the highs of day, at new 52 week highs. I view this as constructive.]

What do you think about SNV? Bullish or bearish?