Monthly Archives: June 2013

Stock Position Updates

If you’ve been following along at, you’re probably looking for stock position updates on some our earlier investment ideas. And given the recent stock market correction, I can hardly blame you. So here it goes:

Major Stock Position Updates:

The following stock ideas make up my major positions. They have all been outlined to some extent on the blog in the past few months. Generally,  despite the macroeconomic concerns, I don’t believe the fundamental theses have changed much.

Harris and Harris Group Inc. Position Update (NASDAQ:TINY

Since we featured TINY on a few weeks ago, TINY has fared quite well. I have been carefully buying the stock on dips below $3.25.

I successfully exited most of my TINY position after the early June run up. I’ve since scaled back into the position adding below 3.25. The company has had some news, announcing an exit on one of their portfolio companies Xradia. The cost basis in Xradia cost TINY $4M, and they expect an exit worth $15M.

From a technical perspective, TINY still has to put in some work. I will continue to accumulate near a $3 cost basis. But the stock is being held down by the market sell-off at large and patience may be in order before we see a sustainable spike in price. Until then, I will keep selling the rips and buying the dips.

What’s next?

Stanley Furniture Company Position Update (NYSE:STLY)

STLY is another small cap stock idea that we’ve looked at a few times on You can find an updated analysis of Stanley here.

Since our initial investment, Stanley has held up rather well, putting in higher highs before succumbing to selling pressure. Nonetheless, STLY has not closed below the $4 level since breaking out, which I construe as more positive than negative.

That said, my immediate optimism for this premium-made-in-America furniture maker isn’t exuberant. And I’m glad I took some profits around the $4.30 area when I had the chance. You see…

With the recent market sell-off, the US housing recovering (from which Stanley is poised to benefit) is all of a sudden in doubt. Be careful with this one (and be diligent about using limit orders to get). I’m still holding and will be interested to see how this turnaround story progresses.

The First MarbleHead Corporation (NYSE:FMD)

Speaking of stock ideas turning around: FMD is another equity in my cross-hairs. Unfortunately, the stock has pulled back since our recent analysis.

While there is some concern from tepid fundamental investors about the ongoing negative NOPAT, cashflow has improved in recent quarters and I’m hoping the lowest prices are behind us.

Technically, the stock has sustained some damage in recent days. It has been unable to make a higher high and is faltering at 52 week resistance. On the other hand, FMD is trading at a 30% discount to it’s net cash per share. So I have to believe that as the stock pulls back, the value case gets even stronger as the margin of safety widens. What do you think?

Minor Stock Position Updates:

The following stock ideas make up small portions of my portfolio (less than 1%).

In every case, these stocks are the remnants of prior major positions. Typically, when a stock reaches it’s sell target, I liquidate most of the position and leave a small “runner” position on. 

So there isn’t much to say in the way of position updates, other than to say I am holding small amounts of: IQNT, INFN, BRKS, AEG, GNW and GLW. I will likely hold these stocks for the long term, though the option to sell them at a gain can be exercised if cash is desperately needed.



FMD Analysis: First MarbleHead Corporation

One stock idea I am looking at right now is First MarbleHead Corporation (NYSE:FMD). I will update this page with a more in-depth FMD Analysis later.

For now, you can use my quick review to decide if FMD warrants further investment research.

Sound good?

FMD Analysis: Dollars for Cents

When analyzing FMD, the first thing that becomes obvious is the fact that FMD common stock is trading for cents on the dollars. The company has about $192M in cash, but the market cap is only $134.86M. That’s a valuation discrepancy I can get behind.

That’s not the end of the FMD fundamental analysis though. There’s more. While FMD has fallen off of it’s 2007 highs, management might finally be getting control. They’ve cut costs, and managed to turn cash flow positive the last three quarters. Sales and marketing initiatives are also being implemented and may yield increased revenue.

FMD Technical Analysis: Trending Up To Resistance

When you look at the chart of FMD, a few things become clear…

  • FMD has been in an uptrend since January 2013. Since this time it has moved up 100% off the lows.
  • The recent advance has been populated with big buy volume indicating buyers of size may have been accumulating just under $1.00/share.
  • FMD has traded up to resistance at around $1.10-$1.30. It is consolidating against this prior resistance level. There seems to be a firm bid below $1.20 and large selling above $1.27 – it’s a battle ground.
  • The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are sloping up on the daily time frame.
  • On the weekly time frame, the 20 period moving average has crossed over the 50 period moving average. The 200 period moving average has more or less flattened out around $1.70.

I like the 200 period MA on the weekly timeframe at $1.70. This also presents