Stock Market Analysis: September 25, 2013

Pre Market Analysis: September 25, 2013

Questrade Option Magnets

Option Puns from Questrade

Futures are flat coming into this mid-week session. Bulls are still stinging from yesterday’s close. So we’ll see if the small caps can lead us higher at the open, or if the XOM’s of the world continue to act as a drag.

One thing I want to say:

In times of macro-economic uncertainty I always find it pays to watch the price action of your favorite indicators – rather than worrying too much about how analysts are interpreting policy decisions, news headlines and world economic events. Even most data points that come out aren’t exactly market moving. Instead, look at how different asset classes are moving relative to one another.

This is probably old news to all of you chart chompers. But it’s worth reminding myself to stay attuned to the global money flow, (and letting that be my guide) rather than getting too caught up in my interpretation of policy statements or data points (both of which will later be revised anyways).

And by the way, thanks to Questrade for those fun magnets I won. Their social media team is doing a pretty good job.

Portfolio Review: September 25 2013

I’m going on vacation tomorrow. So today it’s about paring down risk and preparing for some time away from the screens. Most of my positions are small enough and the cost-basis is conservative enough that I don’t feel a huge need to raise cash. But if the market gives me the chance at profitable exits I just might take it.

I might throw on a small IAG position before leaving, just for the sake of diversity. But the miners have been incredibly weak since last Wednesday and I wouldn’t rule out another leg lower, you know? UUP might be a tell on this one too.

Interesting Articles for September 25 2013:

Is it time for the debt ceiling to be front and centre?

Banks have $155 Billion Capital Shortfall.

— What Recovery? Most Americans Don’t Believe the Economy is Rebounding.

Solazyme gets Unilever as a customer… (could be bullish for TINY?)

Stock Market Day in Review: September 25 2013

It was another choppy day for markets. But it sure didn’t start that way! For a few hours this morning (when IWM was breaking out), I thought we would be back to all time highs. But the strength was fleeting as IWM stalled into the afternoon trade.

Speaking of which…

Don’t you find it interesting that since the Fed announcement of no-taper last week, the SPY, EEM, UUP GDX and XHB have sold off almost every day, while IWM, (and to an extent the QQQ) have managed to grind higher? Meanwhile TLT is trying to convince you it’s putting in a trade-able bottom (although I remain unconvinced).

Thus…

No matter how you slice it, the money is being pushed around in unusual ways. And you can bet the divergences will resolve one way or the other. So what’s my gut feeling you ask?

I’m looking for a big bounce in the indices soon. But if that’s what everyone is expecting, can you really expect it to happen?

Maybe IWM is a red herring, and it will get pulled down with our emerging “risk off” environment.

But enough with stock market generalities…

My portfolio put in a solid showing, despite the red day for the stock market in general. Don’t you just love when that happens? If you’re looking for specific stock ideas:

TINY surprised me with some end of day following through, after threatening to break back down early this afternoon. While I’m hesitant to declare victory, maybe the sellers are exhausted after attacking this stock all summer long. Further: today’s move came on 150% average volume. And the Solazyme-Unilever deal is a positive for the company (although admittedly their share of SZYM is small).

SNV was the other story of the day. It closed a little bit off of it’s intra-day highs, and the grind higher was on low volume. But I’ll take what I can get. I’m still holding the position and hope that if the rest of the market bounces this will really get going. I’m solidly in the green on this one and might scale some profits if it gets above $3.30. The Bollinger bands have been pinching in the last week though, so I’m willing to wait around see if there’s going to be a real move.

How did your trading go today?

Always Be Trading

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