Stock Market Analysis September 24, 2013

Pre-Market Analysis September 24 2013:

Finally, Blackberry (NASDAQ:BBRY) is getting bought out by Fairfax, for $9 per share. Although I haven’t owned a Blackberry in years, it’s nice to see this saga come to an end. As for the rest of the market…

Futures are flat right now. And it looks like the drubbing in gold has continued through the overnight session. It’s pretty amazing how the miners have all given back their no-taper gains and more. This tape will drive you crazy.

There are a couple of economic data points coming out today, including the Case-Shiller index for house price index from July at 9am. There are also some manufacturing and consumer confidence numbers coming out a little later. Throw in 2 more speeches from local Fed presidents and you’ve got a pretty exciting day lined up.

So what am I trading?

Portfolio Review: September 24 2013…

Given all the selling the last few days, it will be interesting to see if anything bounces today. I would be smitten to see follow through in SNV after yesterday’s little bump into the close. I’ll cross my fingers but I won’t hold my breath.

I will also have a close eye on IAG. I think the company presents good value here. But it’s hard to hold on through these bear market rallies. So I will try to be nimble in picking my entry. If you’re a long term investor though I think IAG under $5 has a strong margin of safety.

As for my position in BRKS, I think it will be a “wait and see” kind of day. The stock traded relatively flat yesterday, but on almost twice the average volume. I don’t see any news so I’ll watch for a directional move today, either one way or the other.

Articles I’m Reading on September 24 2013:

Effects of QE on Emerging Markets

Chart School is a great source of technical analysis education

Jim Cramer’s Real Money Book Review.

September 24 2013: Stock Market Day in Review

I hope your day went as well as mine did. I don’t mean to brag, but a green portfolio on a red day is always cause to celebrate, right? So just how did I benefit?

Well for starters, the perennial under-performer (TINY) managed to close above where it opened. I know that doesn’t sound like much. But the price action today finally felt like sellers have exhausted themselves over the last 3 months. I’m not declaring victory yet. And one day does not make a trend. But I’ll watch closely to see if this is an inflection point.

I was also encouraged by the action in SNV, until the close. Given the surge in KRE I felt like this move should have legs. But the low-volume on the session was a red flag. And XLF lagged in general, foreshadowing the retreat in SNV share prices at the close.

On the other hand, I felt relatively confident in the productive trading session BRKS saw today. So I was a little dismayed when (after trading higher on heavy volume) the stock collapsed at the end of the day. Luckily my position here is only modest. And if the stock seriously pulls back I will almost certainly add more. I’m also keeping a tight eye on IAG.

On the whole though, and even though we closed down, breadth was a lot stronger at the close than the open. And if you pull up a SPY daily chart, you’ll see selling volume has come in a little over the last few sessions. So…

Do you think bulls can muster a bounce in the latter half of the week? My money’s on yes.

 

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