Stock Market Analysis August 26 2013

Morning Stock Market Thoughts For August 26, 2013

Futures are pointing slightly lower this morning. But with bonds stabilizing pre-market, there might be room for an up-day. We’ll have to wait and see. IWM and ITB/XHB will be the first things I look at.

In times like these it usually pays to way 45-60 minutes to see if an intra-day range can emerge. Let others set the pace and then jump in when you think it’s safe to do so.

Trading Thoughts On Stocks I’m Watching Today:

— If there is broad market strength, or strength in XLF, then I expect SNV to stay strong. The fundamental narrative is pretty good and if the bank can keep growing revenues then a multiple expansion will at some point become justifiable. Until we get more news I’ll be watching the price action in Synovus Financial closely.

— A low volume pullback in IAG would be something to grab my interest. Larger gold miners like ABX might be a more conservative play on the same idea. It’s hard to call a bottom in gold here (as bottoming can be a long and arduous process with lots of sharp bear market rallies). But over the long term I like the price of the value here and might try a “pilot buy” in one of the above-mentioned.

— TINY is getting thrown in the basement. Wake me up when it starts to move.

— I think BRKS is oversold as well and, I might even stalk an entry in this company. I really like the long term prospects for Brooks Automation. Once the semi-conductor manufacturing cycle ramps back up, BRKS should fly. Until then, I think the stock might drift lower, or bounce around a narrow range. I’m apt to slowly start building a position.

Other Thoughts and Good Articles I’ve Read Today:

— As usual there are some good posts over at iBankCoin this morning. If you haven’t already, check out “The Fly On Interest Rates” … And Option Addict’s Weekly Watchlist is rife with actionable trading ideas!

ForexKong points out: Something smells funky with the Australian Dollar.

— Over at Business Insider, Joe Weisenthal is raising the alarm about the debt ceiling.

Market Logic is in full effect: “The numbers were disappointing this morning, but maybe we’ve returned to one of those odd situations where bad news is good for the market in terms of the Fed tapering,” said Peter Jankovskis, co-chief investment officer at OakBrook Investments LLC in Lisle, Illinois.

Back with more later!

Stock Market Day In Review August 26, 2013

This morning we talked about how the debt ceiling could be the next item to trigger a “risk-off move.” This piece of news isn’t a surprise. It’s been on the calendar for months. But it’s a good example of market logic… and, “how things don’t matter until they do.” Couple that with a war on Syria and you get:

And then…

So while we’re quoting Zerohedge (something I try not to do too much of), you might be wise to keep an eye on the “war rotation.” Gold miners are looking more interesting than ever. Well, the other reason for that is…

Stocks in general were quite weak into the close (like I need to tell you). But the fades in GOOG, IWM and ITB were disappointing.¬†XOM is trading at is almost trading at it’s Graham Number. And Seth Klarman is doubling down on BP. Both of these oil giants are almost neutral YTD. Will they finally wake up if things in Syria finally reach a boiling point (re: western intervention)?

 

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