Stock Market Analysis August 12 2013

Morning Stock Market Thoughts For August 12, 2013

— Futures were weak when I woke up. But they were bid up steadily into the open. And since the market has opened breadth has improved and prices have continued to hold.

— The comparisons to 1987 are increasing. But what if this is like 1986 – and stocks still have another 12 months of gains ahead of them? I guess anything’s possible. And at the end of the day, technical analysis remains important as it keeps price as the final arbiter. So while we’ve had some weak opens as of late, bull markets tend to close strong, and that’s what I’ll be watching these days (and weeks).

Trading Thoughts On Stocks Ideas I’m Watching Today:

— SNV has held up well since the open. I’d like to see it move back to last week’s highs. I’m feeling patient though and will add on a dip.

— FMD is retreating a bit, but not enough for my dip-buying needs. I would be happy to see the stock hit 1.40 (though I’m not convinced it will get there). I’ll keep watching. My real hope with this stock is that they announce a return to securitization at some point. That will be a 2 digit percentage move to the upside, for sure.

— TINY is generally continuing it’s lament. It is somewhat insulated from the greater market, and last week management released it’s new asset value calculations as of June 30. [update: The 2013 second quarter report is available from]… I’m not sure I put much credence in the numbers, one way or another. The cool thing about TINY is how you can invest in a venture capital firm. Accordingly though, this investment is a longer term horizon…

If you’re still wondering what the TINY business model is all about, you might enjoy this video from which explains the focus of the company and their approach to venture capital investments in nanotechnology.

Other Thoughts and Good Articles I’ve Read Today:

— There are some particularly good posts out at this morning. I particularly enjoyed The Fly’s post about being wrong before being right…. and… Option Addict’s Entire Package. Both are educational in the extreme and would serve you well to review.

— My friend ForexKong also had some interesting prose over the weekend, focusing on manipulation in Gold (and how that relates to stocks/USD).

— It’s in vogue to hate on the European economy. So this article from Business Insider about the end of the european recession was interesting – if only as contrarian food for thought… Of course, the rest of BI is filled with Hindenberg-based predictions.

— STLY continues its slow drip lower. I think the company presents a real opportunity. But their inability to catalyze sales is wearing thing. I’m not sure if management is up to the task. But due to their big ERP system upgrades I’m willing to wait another quarter or two.

— I noticed on the PPT Bottom Fishing screen that it was primarily ETFs from: Commodities, Gold and Emerging markets. Interesting to keep an eye out.

Stock Market Wrap-Up August 12 2013

My day, while off to a good start, faded into the afternoon. All of my positions above closed significantly off their intra-day highs. Damn. At least the damage wasn’t too bad. We’ll see how it holds up…

The tricky thing is that from a macro perspective I’m generally hesitant at best, and bearish at worst. But as a person, I’m something of a cautious optimist. So interpreting the market with all these biases is a little tricky.

My investment approach limits me to well-valued stocks. But at this point I’m not hedging against a global catastrophe. And while I feel “intelligent” about my asset allocation, if everything blows up, I could be in trouble. On the other hand, is that a way to live? Well… maybe if you’re into asset management.


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