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Miss Frizzle’s Model for Uncertainty

If you were a kid in Canada during the 90s, then you must be familiar with The Magic School Bus. For those of you unfamiliar, well, I feel sorry for you!

Just kidding… (kind of)…

For the initiated: Miss Frizzle had a magic school bus that could shrink in size, go into space, and travel through time. As you can imagine, the class had some pretty epic field trips.

But the part I didn’t really appreciate until recently was Miss Frizzle’s motto: take chances, make mistakes, get messy!

As a kid, I didn’t fully get it. And how could I? Our entire educational system is based on NOT making mistakes. There’s no reward for bombing the test. So I got awesome at tests.

But decades later, in the real world, the lesson couldn’t be more clear. And in markets, it’s deafening.

That’s because the future is uncertain. Vastly so. Accept it: We can do our best to model and approximate; but, at the end of the day it’s just an educated guess.

The beauty of this is everyone is on the same playing field. Nobody has a crystal ball. And if someone claims to know what tomorrow holds, well, they’re lying to you.

Because we live in a Miss Frizzle world.

And the only way to make the most of it is to take chances, manage risk and keep learning. Do your best to think in probabilities and protect your downside. But whatever you do, don’t stop taking chances.

You might get messy but it’s the only way you can hit the jackpot.