I’m sure I’ve written about this before. But it’s an important theme that’s always good to remember. Basically: it often pays to do what feels counter-intuitive.
I liked this Trading Nation clip from the Crossing Wall Street (CWS) Blog. The host asked, will the Dow reach 20,000? And Eddy Elfenbein, as well as the other guest, indicated it might. But here’s where it gets interesting…
Eddy shared some statistics, about how buying at new highs generally leads to more new highs. But as you might know, buying at new highs isn’t easy.
Especially as value-focused investors, there’s a tendency to try and pick bottoms. And look, I appreciate a good deal as much as the next person. But you need to be careful about being right vs. making money.
Finance is full of very bright people. And there’s a tendency to want to do things uniquely, differently or in a more elegant and complex manner. but sometimes simple is more robust.
If buying at the highs is what works (and the data is pretty compelling), then maybe it’s just best to do that. Even if it’s not easy.