agco pre earnings update 2014

AGCO 2014 Pre-Earnings Update

AGCO is an investment idea I’ve been looking at for a while. Here’s the original AGCO analysis. But because of the recent AGCO technical analysis, I’ve held of from building my position. But you know what?

I can’t stop thinking about AGCO. It’s a wonderful business and it’s ¬†significantly cheaper than the S&P-500 average no matter how you slice it: Price/Earnings, Price/Book, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow AGCO looks undervalued (source). And valuation aside…

The business fundamentals look strong. AGCO management is focused on margin improvement and expanding their global footprint. The company is aggressively buying back shares.¬†So here are some factors I’m thinking about before AGCO reports earnings next week:

AGCO 2014 Pre-Earnings Update:

  • I don’t like to give insider buying too much credit. Because managers aren’t necessarily good investors. But when someone takes a massive stake, it’s hard not to pay attention. In this case, Mallika Srinivasan has directly and indirectly acquired over 5.6M shares of AGCO (AGCO insider buying data from Nasdaq.com). So who is this mysterious buyer?¬†Mallika Srinivasan is a former Ernst and Young Entrepreneur of the year and Chairman and CEO of TAFE, a $1.6B Indian tractor manufacturer. She’s also on the board of AGCO and TATA motors. Draw your own conclusions from this.
  • AGCO sells farm equipment through a network of dealers. So connections in the agriculture company are obviously important. An AGCO executive getting elected to president of CEMA – the association for agricultural machinery in Europe – seems like a positive development for AGCO’s influence in Europe.
  • AGCO has some exposure in Russia and Ukraine, which some cautious investors might see as a red flag. But AGCO operates in over 140 countries around the world. So it’s likely the influences of any regional conflicts will be minimal.
  • Going into earnings, analyst expectations are mixed on AGCO. But even though the average rating is HOLD, the average price target of $59 represents almost 15% upside from here.

What do you think about AGCO going into earnings this year?

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